Decision Simulation for Forecasting

Scenario workflow

1. Define the system boundary and initial state.
2. Choose actors, resources, rules and constraints.
3. Run a baseline before changing assumptions.
4. Apply one or more interventions or shocks.
5. Compare state, behavior and outcome differences.
6. Trace important outcomes back to stored events and assumptions.

A simulation is a model of possibilities, not a guarantee or proof of a real-world outcome.

Questions to test

• Which assumptions materially change the result?
• Where do bottlenecks, conflicts or unexpected behaviors emerge?
• How do autonomous agents adapt as conditions change?
• What stored evidence explains the outcome?

FAQ

What is decision simulation for forecasting?

It applies decision simulation to ranges of possible outcomes under explicit assumptions.

What should this simulation measure?

branching outcomes, assumption sensitivity, agent responses, second-order effects.

Does a simulation guarantee a real-world outcome?

No. A simulation explores modeled possibilities under explicit assumptions; it does not prove what will happen in the real world.