Agent-based Simulation for Scenario Planning

Scenario workflow

1. Define the system boundary and initial state.
2. Choose actors, resources, rules and constraints.
3. Run a baseline before changing assumptions.
4. Apply one or more interventions or shocks.
5. Compare state, behavior and outcome differences.
6. Trace important outcomes back to stored events and assumptions.

A simulation is a model of possibilities, not a guarantee or proof of a real-world outcome.

Questions to test

• Which assumptions materially change the result?
• Where do bottlenecks, conflicts or unexpected behaviors emerge?
• How do autonomous agents adapt as conditions change?
• What stored evidence explains the outcome?

FAQ

What is agent-based simulation for scenario planning?

It applies agent-based simulation to alternate conditions, shocks and interventions.

What should this simulation measure?

agent state, interaction rate, coordination, emergent patterns.

Does a simulation guarantee a real-world outcome?

No. A simulation explores modeled possibilities under explicit assumptions; it does not prove what will happen in the real world.